"eMarketer estimates that the worldwide market for recorded music, live music and music licensing will reach $67.6 billion by 2011, up from the 2006 total of $60.7 billion," says Paul Verna, eMarketer Senior Editor and author of the new
Global Music: Tuning into New Opportunities report. "Over that period the industry will grow at an average annual rate of 2.19%."
Sales of CDs, which currently account for 55% of the industry's total revenues, will continue to decline sharply, falling to 29% of the overall business by 2011.
On the other hand, digital music has been growing exponentially in the past few years and is expected to continue on a healthy growth trajectory, reaching $14.8 billion in worldwide revenues by 2011.
The question on the minds of everyone in the recording industry, however, is: Will the digital segment compensate for the losses in physical sales? The answer is a qualified "no."
"Nevertheless, growth in other sectors will make up for the shortfall in CD sales," says Mr. Verna, "resulting in net growth for the industry as a whole."
That growth will come predominantly from online and mobile music, the live concert industry and the licensing of music for public performances, commercials, TV shows, films and video games.
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